Abstract
Objective
We examined whether a breast cancer risk prediction model other than the Gail et al.
model performs better at discriminating between women who will and who will not develop
the disease.
Methods
We applied the two published versions of the Rosner and Colditz log-incidence model
of breast cancer, developed on data from the Nurses' Health Study, to the estimation
of 5-year risk for the period 1992 to 1997 in the same cohort. The first version contained
reproductive factors only, and the second version contained a more extensive list
of risk factors.
Results
Both versions of the model fit well. The ratio of expected to observed numbers of
cases (E/O) in the first version was 1.00 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93–1.07);
for the extended version the E/O was 1.01 (95% CI 0.94–1.09). The age-adjusted concordance
statistic was 0.57 for the first model version and 0.63 for the extended version.
Conclusion
The discriminatory accuracy of the two versions was modest, although the addition
of the variables in the extended version meaningfully increased the discriminatory
accuracy of risk prediction over that found with the more parsimonious model.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Accepted:
April 17,
2003
Identification
Copyright
© 2003 Elsevier Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
