Advertisement
Research Article| Volume 56, ISSUE 6, P546-552, June 2003

Multivariate estimation of cumulative incidence, prevalence, and morbidity time of a disease when death is likely

  • Yan Yan
    Correspondence
    Corresponding author: Tel.: 314-362-9290; fax: 314-362-9275
    Affiliations
    Department of Surgery, Washington University Medical School, 4960 Children's Place, Box 8242, St. Louis, MO 63110, USA

    Division of Biostatistics, Washington University Medical School, 660 South Euclid Avenue, St Louis, MO 63110, USA
    Search for articles by this author
  • Donald R. Hoover
    Affiliations
    Department of Statistics and Institute for Health, Health Care Policy and Aging Research, Rutgers University,110 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA
    Search for articles by this author
  • Richard D. Moore
    Affiliations
    Department of Internal Medicine, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, 1830 East Monument Street, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA
    Search for articles by this author
  • Chengjie Xiong
    Affiliations
    Division of Biostatistics, Washington University Medical School, 660 South Euclid Avenue, St Louis, MO 63110, USA
    Search for articles by this author

      Abstract

      Competing risk of death from other causes before developing the outcome of interest is a common phenomenon in clinical settings. In a previous article, we developed the “sandwiching method” as one approach to estimate disease incidence and morbidity time for populations at a high risk of death from other causes. In addition to its computational simplicity, the sandwiching method is also relatively assumption free. This article extends the original sandwiching method to incorporate patient characteristics into the estimation by using Cox's proportional hazards model. Data from the Johns Hopkins Hospital AIDS service were used to illustrate this extended method. The importance of estimates was discussed in the context of planning health care needs.

      Keywords

      To read this article in full you will need to make a payment

      Purchase one-time access:

      Academic & Personal: 24 hour online accessCorporate R&D Professionals: 24 hour online access
      One-time access price info
      • For academic or personal research use, select 'Academic and Personal'
      • For corporate R&D use, select 'Corporate R&D Professionals'

      Subscribe:

      Subscribe to Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
      Already a print subscriber? Claim online access
      Already an online subscriber? Sign in
      Institutional Access: Sign in to ScienceDirect

      References

        • Anderson P.K.
        • Gill R.D.
        • Keiding N.
        Statistical models based on counting processes.
        Springer-Verlag, New York1993
        • Hoover D.R.
        • Peng Y.
        • Saah A.J.
        • Detels R.R.
        • Day R.S.
        • Phair J.P.
        Using multiple decrement model to estimate risk and morbidity from specific AIDS illnesses.
        Stat Med. 1996; 15: 2307-2321
        • Hoover D.R.
        • Peng Y.
        • Saah A.J.
        • Detels R.R.
        • Rinaldo C.R.
        • Phair J.P.
        Projecting disease when death is likely.
        Am J Epidemiol. 1996; 143: 943-952
        • Hoover D.R.
        • Peng Y.
        • Saah A.J.
        • Semba R.
        • Detels R.R.
        • Rinaldo C.R.
        • et al.
        Occurrence of cytomegalovirus retinitis after human immunodeficiency virus immunosuppression.
        Arch Ophthalmol. 1996; 114: 821-827
        • Kaplan E.L.
        • Meier P.
        Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations.
        J Am Stat Assoc. 1958; 53: 457-481
        • Aalen O.O.
        Nonparametric estimation of partial transition probabilities in multiple decrement models.
        Ann Stat. 1978; 6: 534-545
        • Cox D.R.
        Regression models and life-tables (with discussion).
        J R Stat Soc B. 1972; 34: 187-220
        • Prentice R.L.
        • Kalbfleisch J.D.
        • Peterson A.
        • Flournoy N.
        • Farwell V.T.
        • Breslow N.E.
        The analysis of failure times in the presence of competing risk.
        Biometrics. 1978; 34: 541-554
        • Breslow N.
        Covariance analysis of censored survival data.
        Biometrics. 1974; 30: 89-99
        • Efron B.
        • Tibshirani R.
        An introduction to the boostrap.
        Chapman and Hall, London1993
        • Gallant J.E.
        • Moore R.D.
        • Richman D.D.
        • Keruly J.
        • Chaisson R.E.
        Incidence and natural history of cytomegalovirus disease in patients with advanced human immunodecifiency virus disease treated with Zidovudine.
        J Infect Dis. 1992; 166: 1223-1227
        • Bowen E.F.
        • Griffiths P.D.
        • Davey C.C.
        • Emery V.C.
        • Johnson M.A.
        Lessons from the natural history of cytomegalovirus.
        AIDS. 1996; 10: s37-s41
        • Kalbfleisch J.D.
        • Prentice R.L.
        The statistical analysis of failure time data.
        John Wiley & Sons, Inc, New York1980
        • Yan Y.
        • Moore R.D.
        • Hoover D.R.
        Competing risk adjustment reduces overestimation of opportunistic infection in AIDS.
        J Clin Epidemiol. 2000; 53: 817-822