Abstract
Risk prediction functions for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) were estimated
using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, a prospective
study of CHD in 15,792 persons recruited in 1987–1989 from four U.S. communities,
with follow-up through 1998. Predictivity of which individuals had incident CHD was
assessed by increase in area under ROC curves resulting from adding nontraditional
risk factors and markers of subclinical disease to a basic model containing only traditional
risk factors. We also assessed the increase in population attributable risk. The additional
factors were body mass index; waist–hip ratio; sport activity index; forced expiratory
volume; plasma fibrinogen, factor VIII, von Willebrand factor, and Lp(a); heart rate;
Keys score; pack-years smoking; and subclinical disease marker carotid intima-media
thickness. These factors substantially improved prediction of future CHD for men,
less for women, and also increased attributable risks.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Accepted:
December 16,
2002
Identification
Copyright
© 2003 Elsevier Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
