Abstract
The objective of this study was to develop a simplified scoring system to predict
30-day mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke. A retrospective cohort study
was performed in a tertiary referral hospital in the Hunter Region of Australia. A
prognostic index was created by assigning points to the variables in a Cox model.
The index included impaired consciousness (5 points), dysphagia (3 points), urinary
incontinence (4 points), admission body temperature higher than 36.5°C (2 points),
and hyperglycemia without a clinical history of diabetes (2 points). A score of 11
or more defined a high-risk group. The index achieved a sensitivity, specificity,
and positive predictive value of 68%, 98% and 75%, respectively, in the derivation
sample and 57%, 97% and 68%, respectively, in the validation sample. The results provide
a simple risk stratification instrument for clinical research and practice. Further
evaluation of the model in a prospective cohort is warranted
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Accepted:
December 15,
2000
Received in revised form:
November 27,
2000
Received:
May 3,
2000
Identification
Copyright
© 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
