Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
Volume 64, Issue 4 , Pages 436-443 , April 2011

Future disability projections could be improved by connecting to the theory of a dynamic equilibrium

  • Bart Klijs

      Affiliations

    • Department of Public health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
    • Corresponding Author InformationCorresponding author. Department of Public health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Room AE-132, PO Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Tel.: +31-10-7038454; fax: +31-10-7038475.
  • ,
  • Johan P. Mackenbach

      Affiliations

    • Department of Public health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
  • ,
  • Anton E. Kunst

      Affiliations

    • Department of Public Health, Academic Medical Center (AMC), Amsterdam, The Netherlands

,Accepted 22 April 2010.

References 

  1. Beer Jd. Future trends in life expectancies in the European union. The Hague, The Netherlands: NIDI; 2006;
  2. Wilmoth JR. Demography of longevity: past, present, and future trends. Exp Gerontol. 2000;35:1111–1129
  3. Fries JF. Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity. N Engl J Med. 1980;303:130–135
  4. Gruenberg E. The failure of success. Milbank Mem Fund Q Health Soc. 1977;55:3–24
  5. Olshansky S, Rudberg M, Carnes B, Cassel B, Brady J. Trading off longer life for worsening health. J Aging Health. 1991;3:194–216
  6. Lafortune G, Balestat G. Trends in severe disability among elderly people: Assessing the evidence in 12 OECD countries and the future implications. OECD Health Working Papers, No. 26. OECD Publishing; 2007.
  7. Doblhammer G, Ziegler U. Future living conditions in Europe: demographic insights. In:  Backes G,  Lasch V,  Reimann K editor. Gender health and ageing: European perspectives on life course, health issues and social challenges. VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften; 2006;p. 267–292
  8. Picavet HS, Hoeymans N. Physical disability in The Netherlands: prevalence, risk groups and time trends. Public Health. 2002;116:231–237
  9. Jagger C, Matthews R, Lindesay J, Robinson T, Croft P, Brayne C. The effect of dementia trends and treatments on longevity and disability: a simulation model based on the MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC CFAS). Age Ageing. 2009;38:319–325discussion 251
  10. Chen JH, Chan DC, Kiely DK, Morris JN, Mitchell SL. Terminal trajectories of functional decline in the long-term care setting. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2007;62:531–536
  11. Covinsky KE, Eng C, Lui LY, Sands LP, Yaffe K. The last 2 years of life: functional trajectories of frail older people. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2003;51:492–498
  12. Guralnik JM, LaCroix AZ, Branch LG, Kasl SV, Wallace RB. Morbidity and disability in older persons in the years prior to death. Am J Public Health. 1991;81:443–447
  13. Manton KG. Changing concepts of morbidity and mortality in the elderly population. Milbank Mem Fund Q Health Soc. 1982;60:183–244
  14. Mackenbach JP, van de Mheen H, Stronks K. A prospective cohort study investigating the explanation of socio-economic inequalities in health in The Netherlands. Soc Sci Med. 1994;38:299–308
  15. Nusselder WJ, Looman CW, Mackenbach JP. Nondisease factors affected trajectories of disability in a prospective study. J Clin Epidemiol. 2005;58:484–494
  16. Nusselder WJ, Looman CW, Mackenbach JP. The level and time course of disability: trajectories of disability in adults and young elderly. Disabil Rehabil. 2006;28:1015–1026
  17. Boshuizen HC, van Baal PH. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis: be a Bayesian. Value Health. 2009;12:1210–1214
  18. Briggs A, Schulpter M, Claxton K. Decision modelling for health economic evaluation. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press; 2006;
  19. Drummond M, O'Brian B, Stoddart G. Methods for the economic evaluation of health care programs. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press; 2003;
  20. Polder JJ, Barendregt JJ, van Oers H. Health care costs in the last year of life–the Dutch experience. Soc Sci Med. 2006;63:1720–1731
  21. Seshamani M, Gray AM. A longitudinal study of the effects of age and time to death on hospital costs. J Health Econ. 2004;23:217–235
  22. Werblow A, Felder S, Zweifel P. Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of “red herrings”?. Health Econ. 2007;16:1109–1126
  23. Zweifel P, Felder S, Meiers M. Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a red herring?. Health Econ. 1999;8:485–496
  24. Cui J. QIC program and model selection in GEE analyses. Stata J. 2007;7:209–220
  25. Cv Campen, Iedema J, Wellink H. Gezond en wel met een beperking. [Safe and sound with a disability.]. The Hague, The Netherlands: Social and Cultural Planning Office of the Netherlands; 2006;
  26. Perenboom R. Neemt de gezonde levensverwachting in Nederland toe of af? Volksgezondheid Toekomst Verkenning, Nationaal Kompas Volksgezondheid. [Does the healthy life expectancy in the Netherlands increase or decrease?] Available at http://www.rivm.nl/vtv/object_document/o2805n18839.html 2005. Accessed September 18, 2008
  27. Poos M. Neemt de levensverwachting toe of af? Volksgezondheid Toekomst Verkenning, Nationaal Kompas Volksgezondheid. 2007. [Does the life expectancy increase or decrease?] Available at http://www.rivm.nl/vtv/object_document/o2308n18838.html. Accessed May 15, 2008
  28. Manton KG, Gu X, Lamb VL. Change in chronic disability from 1982 to 2004/2005 as measured by long-term changes in function and health in the U.S. elderly population. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006;103:18374–18379
  29. Sagardui-Villamor J, Guallar-Castillon P, Garcia-Ferruelo M, Banegas JR, Rodriguez-Artalejo F. Trends in disability and disability-free life expectancy among elderly people in Spain: 1986–1999. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2005;60:1028–1034
  30. Schoeni RF, Liang J, Bennett J, Sugisawa H, Fukaya T, Kobayashi E. Trends in old-age functioning and disability in Japan, 1993-2002. Popul Stud (Camb). 2006;60:39–53
  31. Perenboom RJ, Van Herten LM, Boshuizen HC, Van Den Bos GA. Trends in disability-free life expectancy. Disabil Rehabil. 2004;26:377–386
  32. Cai L, Lubitz J. Was there compression of disability for older Americans from 1992 to 2003?. Demography. 2007;44:479–495
  33. Graham P, Blakely T, Davis P, Sporle A, Pearce N. Compression, expansion, or dynamic equilibrium? The evolution of health expectancy in New Zealand. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2004;58:659–666
  34. Jagger C, Matthews RJ, Matthews FE, Spiers NA, Nickson J, Paykel ES, et al. Cohort differences in disease and disability in the young-old: findings from the MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC-CFAS). BMC Public Health. 2007;7:156
  35. Janssen F, Kunst AE. Cohort patterns in mortality trends among the elderly in seven European countries, 1950-99. Int J Epidemiol. 2005;34:1149–1159

PII: S0895-4356(10)00186-1

doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2010.04.018

Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
Volume 64, Issue 4 , Pages 436-443 , April 2011