Flexible regression models are useful tools to calculate and assess threshold values in the context of minimum provider volumes
Accepted 30 November 2007. published online 12 June 2008.
Abstract
Objective
The aim was to review different approaches for the derivation of threshold values and to discuss their strengths and limitations in the context of minimum provider volumes.
Study Design and Setting
The following methods for the calculation of threshold values are compared and discussed: The value of acceptable risk limit, the value of acceptable risk gradient, the benchmark value proposed by Budtz-Jørgensen and Ulm's breakpoint model. The latter is extended to account for two different breakpoints. The methods are applied to German quality assurance data concerning total knee replacement.
Results
The discussed methods for calculating threshold values differ in the kind of information that has to be specified beforehand. For the value of acceptable risk limit approach an absolute number, the acceptable risk, has to be predetermined. The value of acceptable risk gradient approach and the method of Budtz-Jørgensen require the specification of a relative change expressed in gradient and in odds, respectively. On the other hand, the threshold value according to the method of Ulm is defined as a parameter of a statistical model and no a priori specification is required.
Conclusion
Each of the proposed methods has benefits and drawbacks. The choice of the most appropriate approach depends on the specific problem and the available data.
aInstitute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care, Cologne, Germany
bStatistical Consulting Unit, Department of Statistics, Ludwig-Maximilians Universität, Munich, Germany
cMedical Advisory Service of Social Health Insurance, Essen, Germany
dMedical Faculty Mannheim, University of Heidelberg, Germany
eMedical Faculty, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
Corresponding author. Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG), Medical Biometry, Dillenburger Street 27, D-51105 Cologne, Germany. Tel.: +49-221-35685-453; fax: +49-221-35685-893.
ABSTRACT