Risk tables for parkinsonism and Parkinson's disease

Elbaz, Alexis; Bower, James H; Maraganore, Demetrius M; McDonnell, Shannon K; Peterson, Brett J; Ahlskog, J.Eric; Schaid, Daniel J; Rocca, Walter A

« Previous Next »Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
Volume 55, Issue 1 , Pages 25-31, January 2002

Risk tables for parkinsonism and Parkinson's disease

Alexis Elbaz
- Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, 200 First Street SW, Rochester, MN 55905, USA
James H Bower
- Department of Neurology, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, 200 First Street SW, Rochester, MN 55905, USA
Demetrius M Maraganore
- Department of Neurology, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, 200 First Street SW, Rochester, MN 55905, USA
Shannon K McDonnell
- Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, 200 First Street SW, Rochester, MN 55905, USA
Brett J Peterson
- Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, 200 First Street SW, Rochester, MN 55905, USA
J.Eric Ahlskog
- Department of Neurology, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, 200 First Street SW, Rochester, MN 55905, USA
Daniel J Schaid
- Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, 200 First Street SW, Rochester, MN 55905, USA
Walter A Rocca
- Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, 200 First Street SW, Rochester, MN 55905, USA
- Department of Neurology, Mayo Clinic and Mayo Foundation, 200 First Street SW, Rochester, MN 55905, USA
- Corresponding author. Tel.: 507-284-3568; fax: 507-284-1516. E-mail address:(W.A. Rocca)

Received 2 April 2001; received in revised form 29 June 2001; accepted 12 July 2001.

Abstract

We applied the incidence rates of parkinsonism and Parkinson's disease (PD) from Olmsted County, MN (1976–1990) to a hypothetical cohort undergoing the mortality rates observed in Minnesota, and computed the lifetime risk and the remaining lifetime risk of developing parkinsonism and PD. These risks were compared to cumulative incidences that do not take competing risks of death into account. The lifetime risk of developing parkinsonism from birth was 4.4% for men and 3.7% for women (ratio = 1.2). The corresponding risk of developing PD was 2.0% for men and 1.3% for women (ratio = 1.5). Because of the opposite effect of higher incidence and higher mortality rates in men, the lifetime risks were only slightly higher in men than in women. Lifetime cumulative incidences were consistently higher than lifetime risks; this difference was more pronounced in men and in older subjects. Lifetime risk estimates are useful in clinical practice, epidemiologic research, and public health.

Keywords: Parkinsonism, Parkinson's disease, Epidemiology, Lifetime risk, Cumulative risk, Competing risks